Flamengo has a 54% chance of reaching the Libertadores, says mathematician
O Globo Online
RIO - With three rounds remaining in the Brazilian Championship, seven teams are still fighting for the three remaining places in the 2008 Copa Libertadores da América, according to mathematician Tristão Garcia - for now, only Fluminense, champion of the Copa do Brasil, and São Paulo, champion of the Brasileirão in advance, are guaranteed a place in the competition (check the Brazilian Championship standings).
Of the seven candidates, however, two are virtually eliminated from the race: Atlético-PR, with a 2% chance, and Botafogo, with a 1% chance, as demonstrated by the mathematician's calculations on the Infobola website. Both have 50 points, in seventh and eighth place, respectively, and depend on numerous combinations of results to turn the tide.
The excitement in this final stretch of the championship will be the round-by-round battle between Santos, Cruzeiro, Flamengo, Palmeiras, and Grêmio. Despite the 2-2 draw at home to Atlético-MG, Santos is the closest to the Libertadores: a 94% chance, says Tristão. The Vila Belmiro team is second with 59 points, two ahead of third-place Cruzeiro.
Flamengo faces Santos in the next round
Cruzeiro fans celebrated another victory after seven rounds - a 3-1 victory over Flamengo - and, in addition, saw their chances of qualifying soar from 44% to 81%. Despite the setback, however, the Rio de Janeiro club remained in the top four, thanks to Palmeiras' 3-1 loss to Sport, and remains in good standing in Tristão Garcia's books. Their chances fell slightly: from 60% to 54%.
Flamengo has the same 55 points as Palmeiras, but has the advantage on goal difference (4 to 3). Although they are closely tied in the standings, according to the mathematician, Palmeiras is far behind Flamengo in the Copa Libertadores, with a 45% chance of qualifying. Grêmio, in seventh place with 54 points, has only a 23% chance.
The next round of the Brasileirão features the final remaining clash between the five teams vying for a Copa Libertadores spot: Flamengo vs. Santos on Sunday at the Maracanã. After that, the Rio de Janeiro club will have another home game against Atlético-PR and will conclude its campaign in Recife against Náutico. Santos will face desperate Paraná away and a comfortable Fluminense at Vila Nova de Gaia.